![]() ![]() In other words, champions win championships. ![]() Those include 1997 Arizona (no conference tournament), 2014 UConn (an outlier in almost every sense) and 2015 Duke (35-4 but finished a game back of Virginia in a competitive ACC and lost to top 10 Notre Dame). Why? Because in the last 31 tournaments, only three teams have won the national title without also winning a league title. Next on the chopping block is everyone who didn't win either a share of their regular season conference title or the conference tournament title. Because these rankings are not static and teams will move around a good bit in the tournament, I'm channeling Casey Kasem and expanding to the top 40.Įliminated: Duke (44th), Iowa (77th), Providence (79th), Purdue (100th) Rule 4: The champs are here! Dating back to the start of the KenPom efficiency data in 2001-02, every single national champion has finished in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. So we turn to the one and only Ken Pomeroy and his adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Tempo is a thing, though, and it has too significant an impact on gross points allowed for that to be a reliable measure of team defense. That means it's time to say goodbye to anyone who hasn't been to a Final Four.Įliminated: Saint Mary's, Tennessee Rule 3: Defensive efficiency wins championshipsĬliches become cliches for a reason, and defense is simply a more reliable resource than offense because, sometimes, you just don't make shots. So when you consider 35 of the last 36 champions have not accomplished that feat, it seems like a fairly solid success rate. In this case, it isn't the 2014 UConn team but the 1999 one that cut down the nets in its first-ever trip to the Final Four. The exception, of course, is UConn, who love to torment me as a lifelong Villanova fan. It's only happened one time since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Teams don't win it all in their first trip to the Final Four. So, we're about to say goodbye to over 70% of the field because everyone seeded sixth or worse - you're out!Įliminated: All teams seeded sixth or worse, including Alabama, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State and Texas Rule 2: Act like you've been there before ![]() You'll also notice it's only happened once in the last 30 years. Since seeding began in the late 1970s, only four national champions have been seeded worse than five: No. At least not regularly enough for it to be worth predicting on your bracket. Rule 1: The cream has already risen to the topĬall this the No Fun Rule if you'd like, but there's no point in fighting with reality: Cinderella doesn't win national titles. It's just math (mostly).īrackets are here! Get back in your pools and join our Men's and Women's Challenges for the chance to win a new truck and a college basketball dream trip! Also, jersey colors.Īfter applying these six rules to the bracket - almost every national champion fits into these categories - we can say with near certainty who's got an actual shot to win in 2022. For the uninitiated, FUNK is a foolproof (well, except last year) method of determining national championship contenders based on historical trends among champions. That means it's time to fire up the old Flagrantly Unscientific Natty Kalculator (FUNK) and figure out who can actually bring home the national championship three weeks from tonight in New Orleans. ![]() 15-seed on the first afternoon of the Big Dance. Now the question becomes how best to keep your bracket from taking a one-way flight into the trash can after watching your national champion lose to a No. Selection Sunday has finally come and gone, and the 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket is in our hands. ![]()
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